General News
The Brazilian Presidency is now in “task force mode” as it extends negotiating hours in the second week in an attempt to gavel through its proposed “Belem Package” on Wednesday.
The weightiest issues have now punted to ministers by COP30 President Andre Correa do Lago following what officials describe as a “constructive” first week. The Belem Package would include agreements on the big four sticky issues: the responsibility of developed countries to provide suitable climate finance, concerns around unilateral trade measures, the gap in climate action (indicated by ambitious NDCs), and transparency reporting.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell delivered a pointed message during Saturday’s stocktaking plenary, pushing countries to listen to each other’s priorities and compromise to secure a final deal that “preserves” the Paris Agreement. “I urge you to give a little so that you may get a lot,” he told delegates as COP30 reached its midway point, with most key issues still unresolved.
May this spirit of compromise set the tone this week….
Carbon Markets
The Brazilian Government’s coalition on carbon markets, the catchily named “Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets” was tipped to be a big moment during COP, and its 18 members were formerly announced at a ministerial session on Saturday. It now includes some of the largest economies in the world (full members are Brazil, China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Chile, Germany, Mexico, Armenia, Zambia, France, Rwanda, Andorra, Guinea, New Zealand, Monaco, Singapore, and Norway), though there are some obvious names missing….
On Article 6, there were various developments despite there being no formal negotiations on this during COP30. On Saturday, new draft negotiating texts for Article 6.2 and Article 6.4 were published, with “informal consultations” to be held in the coming days.
Meanwhile, Singapore and Thailand, which have a slew of Article 6.2 deals under their belts, published carbon credit programme and methodology lists in line with their Article 6.2 agreements on Monday. Methodologies under Gold Standard, Verra and GCC have been approved among others, while others are still being reviewed.
Media activity focused on some of the side events and fringe discussions on the burgeoning CDR sector. Direct Air Capture (DAC) developers talked about tie-ups and tailwinds behind the Canadian CDR sector, while there was discussion on how Singapore is successfully piloting marine carbon removal.
Tensions around trade and carbon pricing are escalating. The EU is battling to hold the line on its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) under pressure from China and other large trading partners at COP30, with the issue threatening to take hostage the global climate negotiations. Country groups led by China, India and Saudi Arabia have pushed both in public statements and closed-door consultations for a negotiated outcome that singles out “unilateral trade measures.”
Climate Finance
The finance negotiations have emerged as the central battleground of COP30, with fundamental disagreements over who pays and how much threatening to derail the talks.
A big piece of the puzzle is the new climate finance goal, typically set at each COP. Last year this was increased from $300bn per year from $100bn per year but at the time was widely criticised for not growing enough. The Baku to Belem Roadmap hopes to address this, but it is just a roadmap, not a binding commitment.
Sarah Bracking, Professor of Climate and Society at Kings College London, has written a strong call to action that indexes on innovation, blended sources of finance and things like decommissioning bonds for fossil fuels.
As part of the financing packages, adaption finance has been a large focus and an area where many developing countries and associated coalitions have been vocal. Sandra Guzman, Founder of the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean (GFLAC), commented “Adaptation finance would be the signal from rich countries that they are still interested in funding the fight against climate change.” She suggests a tripling of adaption finance is possible.
NDCs
Ambitious NDCs are the mark of ambitious climate action, and the calls for countries to lean into this are growing louder. There has been significant push back on major emitters such as India, which are yet to publish its updated NDC. Experts point to the realities of setting an NDC in the face of “other concerns” according to Vaibhav Chaturvedi of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) – namely local elections in the politically critical state of Bihar and its trade deal with the USA. India has committed to publish an updated NDC by December this year.
We are seeing collective action continuing to form, however. The NDC Partnership, a global coalition of more than 250 governments and international institutions launched a new five-year roadmap for implementation of NDCs on Monday, aimed to support countries in designing, implementing and financing NDCs.
Charlie Morrow is Cognito’s Global Head of Sustainability
