COP30 exposed the gap between climate diplomacy and the economics already reshaping the energy system. The talks delivered process, not politics. The real movement came from the countries and coalitions acting outside the negotiating room.
The headline outcome – the Global Mutirão – sets a demand for tripling adaptation finance by 2035 and launches a “Belém Mission” to lift collective action on emissions. What it didn’t do was spell out how the fossil fuel system will wind down or how deforestation will reverse. Brazil’s presidency has now promised two new roadmaps next year to fill those holes. Here’s a detailed summary of everything that was (and wasn’t) agreed.
The media verdict: brutal, but is it fair?
The Telegraph said “COP has been a total failure. It is time to end this self-indulgent charade”, Bloomberg said, “Climate summits are working as they were designed: poorly” whilst the BBC has held a more neutral line, observing that this was a “deeply divisive climate summit”.
Business Green said bluntly that “if a summit is perceived as a failure, then it has failed.” Anyone who has followed COPs knows the pattern: heavy criticism, accusations of drift, and annual questions about whether the process still works. The FT’s Pilita Clark offered a rare note of optimism, pointing to a shift from grandstanding to the harder work of cutting emissions.
Tom Rivett-Carnac, founding partner at Global Optimism, said on BBC News “The economic transition underway is remarkable. It is moving faster than many of us dared hope…over time those economics will reshape politics. The question is whether that will happen quickly enough.”
David Shukman, former BBC News Science editor, called for truth. He said the petrostates “got their way” at COP, like the US did at the IMO talks on shipping decarbonisation. “So long as the truth can get out, about the real effects of climate change and the plausible alternatives, there is still a chance”.
Our three tests of implementation: revisited
Going into Belém, we identified three areas where “implementation” would be tested. Here’s how they played out.
Carbon Markets
We saw the “Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets” formerly announce it now has membership from 18 countries including China, the EU and the UK. A clear signal that cohesion on carbon pricing is taking shape. This will set a foundation for how climate action and open international trade can be promoted simultaneously.
The updated texts for Article 6.2 Article 6.4 and the guidance relating to the clean development mechanism were approved by negotiators without further changes, a positive outcome that doesn’t add further uncertainty for carbon markets.
Communications takeaway: This was never going to be a major year for negotiations on carbon markets, but we’ve seen continued momentum that will help shore up confidence and build momentum.
Looking ahead, there will be more important issues to focus on like the EU’s Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming (CRCF) regulation which was recently adopted, the move towards mandatory CORSIA compliance for international aviation routes from 2027, and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) due to become operational in January 2026.
Lead with specifics: which methodologies are approved, which bilateral agreements are operational, how do your credits align with Article 6 frameworks. For voluntary markets, expect continued integrity questions – default to concrete data on additionality, permanence and verification. Communications can play an important role in building back the trust that the market needs now.
Climate Finance
Belém has been described as the “Adaptation COP”. The key outcome for climate finance was a commitment to tripling the $40 billion adaptation finance by 2035, although this was not the 2030 target that many developing countries wanted. The World Resources Institute broke down how we might get to the new target of $120 billion in practice, stating that “every source of finance will need to step up and the system will need to work better as a whole.
We saw the Baku to Belém Roadmap published before COP addressing five priority areas. Civil society groups criticised the absence of accountability measures and the Financial Times noted the plan needs to prove it can deliver.
Brazil’s TFFF (Tropical Forests Forever Facility) launched with $6.7 billion in pledges from Brazil, Indonesia, France, Germany and Norway – a start towards the $25 billion initial target. China and the UK have signalled potential funding commitments next year.
For communicators: The implementation gap is a finance gap, and credibility won’t be restored until that gap narrows. There is a real role for all types of finance to step up here. There will be huge media appetite in innovative financing mechanisms being developed like the TFFF’s payment-for-conservation model. Companies that are genuine about playing a role in these initiatives, should talk about it.
NDCs
Onto 120 countries submitted updated NDCs by the close of COP30, leaving over 70 still missing.
Current pledges put us on a 2.5°C trajectory. The new “Belém Mission to 1.5°C” is a promise to produce a report next year about how to be more ambitious.
India’s delay in publishing its NDC – blamed on local elections and US trade negotiations – exemplifies the problem. Climate targets are increasingly subordinated to other political and economic concerns. The climate action that matters is happening despite NDCs, not because of them.
Beyond firm NDCs – much has been said about the importance of “coalitions of the willing” to take the real action that is needed. There were numerous examples of this at COP30, from carbon markets coalitions, to fossil-fuel phase out roadmaps.
Actions these groups create – including communications moments next year such as the first international conference on the transition away from fossil fuels, being held concurrently by the Netherlands and Columbia in April – will be of critical importance.
For communications: Link projects to specific NDC targets where they exist, but don’t make NDC alignment your primary message. The market reality – $386 billion invested in renewables in the first half of 2025 alone – is moving faster than policy.
Harness tangible platforms for communications pre-COP31 – including established ones such as global Climate Weeks, and new ones.
What’s next
It was finally agreed that COP31 will be held in Turkey, with Australia taking an unusual role in running the talks. This unique dual structure may add complexity to the process or could offer opportunities for breakthroughs.
The next 12 months will be centred around:
- Increasing urgency for countries to submit their NDCs
- Brazil’s presidency leading work on the anticipated fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps
- Ongoing negotiations on finance, trade and adaptation
The opportunity for communicators is simple: tell grounded stories about the economic transition already underway. Diplomacy is lagging behind reality. Belém proved that most of the action that counts is happening outside the hall.
Climate action is no longer waiting for climate diplomacy — and that may be the most useful lesson from COP30.
