COP30: three tests of implementation we are watching

COP30 has opened under a mix of anticipation and fatigue. Governments, investors and climate advocates have claimed that this would be the moment when climate pledges become projects.

Now, with record sums flowing into clean energy and transition finance, the question is no longer whether the world is spending (though how much spending is going on remains a key point to address) – it’s whether that spending is delivering.

Global climate investment is surging. In the first half of 2025 alone, renewable energy attracted $386 billion – up 10 percent from last year – while a further $56 billion went into green technologies from batteries to electric vehicles.

Yet the paradox is hard to ignore: capital is moving faster than policy, and politics is moving backwards. Governments are missing targets, negotiations are fracturing, and the very multilateral process that defines the COP cycle is under strain.

Many speeches at the opening General Plenary of Leaders yesterday lamented on the fractured political consensus on climate action. Some pointed to easier multi-lateral conversations happening with notable world leaders not being present.

Brazil’s Presidency has branded the meeting in Belém as the “implementation COP” – the one meant to turn rhetoric into results. The agenda stretches far as always, from finance reform to carbon markets to national transition plans to adaptation financing and just transitions.

There are three areas we think progress will be particularly decisive – and where “implementation” will be tested not just as a slogan, but proof of delivery.

Test #1: Will Baku to Belém Roadmap set the right direction of travel on climate finance?

The Baku to Belém Roadmap, a joint initiative of the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies, has been billed as the master plan for turning finance pledges into real flows. Its goal: to mobilize $1.3 trillion a year by 2035 to support climate action in developing countries.

It was unveiled on 5th November – and while its not part of the COP30 negotiations, there will be a launch event, and its widely expected to set the narrative on climate finance for several years as the roadmap gets implemented.

The roadmap focuses on five priority areas to improve, enhance and drive greater coordination:

Replenishing: refers to grants, concessional finance and low-cost capital, including multilateral climate funds and MDBs.

Rebalancing: referring to fiscal space and debt sustainability. The roadmap calls on creditor countries, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and MDBs to work together to “alleviate onerous debt burdens faced by developing countries”.

Rechannelling: referring to private finance and affordable cost of capital.

Revamping: referring to capacity and coordination for scaled climate portfolios.

Reshaping: focused on systems and structures for capital flows

Communications and engagement considerations:

Be precise about your role in the Roadmap: whether you are mobilising private capital, pushing MDB reform, or expanding access to concessional finance. Since the roadmap will likely be a reference for several years, you should be clear about where you fit in

Reporting matters: There is clear guidance for large companies and institutional investors to “Report annually on how they are contributing towards the implementation of NDCs and NAPs”

The need for credit ratings and governments to partner: there is a clear call to action for credit ratings firms to work with finance ministries to make progress on refinements to credit rating methodologies.

For a detailed overview – read this excellent summary published in Carbon Brief.

Test #2: Can diplomacy deliver a single cohesive global carbon market?

Carbon markets were one of COP29’s few genuine breakthroughs, with progress on Article 6 laying the groundwork for new cooperation.

This year, Brazil’s COP Presidency is now pushing towards something even bigger: a global carbon market – one based on multilateral agreement.

Landing a global carbon pricing approach would indeed be quite a feat of diplomacy. The EU and China – two leviathans when it comes to its own emissions markets – have expressed an interest in joining a coalition the Brazil is putting together to unite carbon markets. It would certainly be one of the more significant breakthroughs if the Presidency managed to pull this off.

Deputy Secretary Cristina Reis of Brazil’s Ministry of Finance emphasized that the coalition goes beyond the environmental dimension, offering an integrated economic and social solution that can be applied across the entire mitigation hierarchy: “The coalition will introduce new technologies and innovative solutions for decarbonisation, and enable the exchange of best practices among participating countries”.

Discussions on voluntary markets, meanwhile, will remain focused on integrity and alignment with Article 6 (even though formal negotiations won’t begin for three years). A pre-COP announcement from the EU that it had reached an agreement to reduce its emissions by 90% by 2040, with an option for 5% of these emissions to be covered by carbon credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, will give discussions a further boost on the ground in Belem.

And we’ve already seen some interesting initiatives launch in São Paulo, where the private sector has been meeting ahead of COP30. The Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets, a group of governments from France, Kenya, Singapore, the UK, and Panama have announced principles for businesses on the use of high-integrity carbon credits to unlock capital for development, support economic activity, and enable progress towards global climate goals.

All eyes will be on the negotiations taking place on 14 and 15 November, designated as “Systems transformation” days within the official COP agenda, explicitly covering Finance and Carbon Markets as key themes.

It is here where discussions are expected on operationalising rules and guidance for international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Communications considerations:

On carbon pricing: watch developments about Brazil’s carbon markets coalition closely. A breakthrough led by Brazil, China and the EU would reshape the carbon pricing landscape, impacting firms already communicating about compliance markets and initiatives such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

On voluntary markets: continue to lead communications with strong messages on integrity, quality, transparency. Be aware of the counterarguments – explain how you’re addressing additionality, permanence and human rights concerns.

Test #3: Will the new NDCs move from pledges to beyond-paper commitments?

The latest NDC Synthesis Report, released on 28 October, shows only 64 new Nationally Determined Contributions – covering just over 30% of global emissions. Together, they would cut emissions by about 10% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels – only a sixth of the reduction needed to stay within 1.5°C.

As UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell noted, “humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough.”

The implementation gap is now about translation: how national pledges become sectoral transition plans and investable projects. The concept of “investable NDCs” has taken hold, but delivery will depend on public – private partnerships that deploy real capital. Some examples already exist – from Masdar’s joint venture with Infinity Power to South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnerships and TotalEnergies’ green hydrogen project in Morocco.

Scaling this model is a major piece of the puzzle if NDCs are to move beyond paper. Will we see more deal inked in Belém? Will the diplomatic process encourage more ambitious NDCs from those countries that are yet to announce firm plans?

Communications considerations:

Be specific about NDC alignment: link your projects to specific NDC targets, not generic needs around renewable energy generation

Lead with milestones, not pledges: highlight grid connections, construction starts, or financing close, not future pledges

Language matters: reference established implementation structures such as Country Platforms frameworks and JETPs to demonstrate alignment and credibility.